Odds On Favorite To Win Best Animated Feature

The Oscar nominations are here and then are the BuzzMeter panel's predictions for the winners!

It'south the money round (and by that, we definitely do non mean "Grab this story and get to Vegas"); after months of our film addicts advocating for their favorites and guessing what nominees the academy might pull from the ether, the panelists have placed their bets on who will take home the actual trophies. Equally they do each round, they've ranked their picks in each category, with the top option receiving the most points and the bottom receiving the fewest.

Take your own ideas about who and what will get Oscar roses? Fill out your own slates in our polls. This week: Nosotros feature our awards geniuses' winner predictions for best director.

"The Power of the Dog" director of photography Ari Wegner and director/adapter Jane Campion.

one. Jane Campion ("The Ability of the Canis familiaris")
2. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
3. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Auto")
4. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")
v. Steven Spielberg ("Due west Side Story")

Jane Campion is the first woman to be nominated for best director twice. She's likewise i of simply three consensus picks to win her category in Round 3 of the BuzzMeter.

The helmer of "The Power of the Dog" has been on elevation all awards flavour long, and the panel continues to think "Domestic dog" could accept its twenty-four hour period, making its adapter-producer-director the third woman to win in the directing category. Information technology's funny to think of 1 of the world's most respected filmmakers for decades as "this year'southward anything," but Campion's triple noms this twelvemonth (including i for screenplay) are analogous to Chloé Zhao's four-nom feat of last year. If Campion wins in all three of her categories, as the console expects her to do, she would top Zhao'south win total (in the directing and best motion-picture show categories).

Both motion-picture show and director are heavy favorites amongst both manufacture watchers and betting concerns. Covers.com, for example, has Campion alee with the widest margin in whatsoever category listed (-700 to win, vs. runner-upwards Steven Spielberg at +850 — a huge gap).

Panelist Anne Thompson calls Campion "a lock"; Dave Karger says "Campion seems assured to follow Chloé Zhao every bit a winner here" and Justin Chang and Claudia Puig both encounter echoes of the previous Campion-Spielberg matchup, with a dissimilar event: "She is facing off confronting Steven Spielberg again, as she did in 1993, when he won for 'Schindler'south List,' " says Puig. "Only this time she'll win."

Should Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, a longshot (every bit is anybody whose last name doesn't rhyme with "champion"), triumph for "Drive My Car," he'd exist the third directly Asian filmmaker to pull off the feat — after none in the previous xc or so years of the awards. (That'south right, Akira Kurosawa never won a competitive Oscar.)

Of the omissions, Panelist Tim Cogshell says, "I'd swap ['King Richard's' Reinaldo Marcus] Green for several of those nominated, and I'd bump a couple for Maggie Gyllenhaal and her picture ('The Lost Girl') in both categories."

Others who didn't make the cut despite strong credentials include Denis Villeneuve, whose "Dune" received 10 nominations including best pic, and who had received a DGA nom; Pedro Almodóvar; and the other 3 directors whose movies are in the best motion-picture show field: Sian Heder ("CODA"), Adam McKay ("Don't Expect Upwards") and Guillermo del Toro ("Nightmare Alley").

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Jane Campion ("The Ability of the Dog")
2. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Car")
3. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
4. Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story")
5. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")

"The Jane Campion vs. Steven Spielberg rematch is happening — and to those of us with vivid memories of 'The Piano' vs. 'Schindler's List,' the prospect couldn't exist more heady, fifty-fifty as Campion'south victory seems certain."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC'due south FilmWeek

1. Jane Campion ("The Ability of the Dog")
2. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
3. Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story")
4. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")
5. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Auto")

"There is no nomination for Reinaldo Marcus Green, director of 'King Richard.' Of class, there are several films nominated for best picture whose directors are not; it'due south the nature of the category (10 best pictures vs. five best directors). Still, I'd swap Dark-green for several of those nominated, and I'd bump a couple for Maggie Gyllenhaal and her film ('The Lost Daughter') in both categories."

Dave Karger
TCM

1. Jane Campion ("The Power of the Domestic dog")
two. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")
3. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Drive My Car")
4. Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story")
5. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")

"Even if 'The Power of the Dog' doesn't pull off a all-time picture win, Campion seems bodacious to follow Chloé Zhao every bit a winner here."

Claudia Puig
KPCC'due south FilmWeek

one. Jane Campion ("The Power of the Dog")
2. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
iii. Steven Spielberg ("W Side Story")
4. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Bulldoze My Car")
5. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")

"Definitely the best director Oscar will go to Jane Campion. She is facing off against Steven Spielberg once again, as she did in 1993, when he won for 'Schindler's List.' Only this time she'll win. (Last time he did.)"

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

i. Jane Campion ("The Power of the Dog")
two. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Bulldoze My Car")
3. Steven Spielberg ("West Side Story")
iv. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")
five. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")

"Jane Campion, the first woman to be nominated twice as director, is a lock to become the 3rd to win."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Jane Campion ("The Power of the Dog")
ii. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi ("Bulldoze My Car")
three. Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
4. Steven Spielberg ("Due west Side Story")
5. Kenneth Branagh ("Belfast")

"Campion is the just woman to exist nominated twice as managing director. This time she'll prevail."

Benedict Cumberbatch on a horse in "The Power of the Dog"

1. "The Power of the Canis familiaris"
two. "Belfast"
three. "West Side Story"
4. "Male monarch Richard"
five. "Dune"
vi. "Drive My Motorcar"
7. "Licorice Pizza"
8. "CODA"
9. "Don't Await Up"
10. "Nightmare Alley"

Of the 10 categories The BuzzMeter tracks, just three produced consensus picks in Circular iii. Best picture, with all panelists picking "The Power of the Canis familiaris" to win, is one.

Jane Campion's noirish investigation of toxic masculinity led all movies with 12 Oscar nominations, including receiving nods in every category the BuzzMeter predicted information technology would — even calculation one to that list (Jesse Plemons' supporting-actor nod).

As panelist Glenn Whipp says, " 'The Power of the Dog' led the field with 12 nominations. Let's not get too cute hither. Unless the bias against streamers runs really deep, Jane Campion's western will win."

After "Canis familiaris," three films are bunched in the pack: Kenneth Branagh's mannerly memory play "Belfast," Reinaldo Marcus Green's "King Richard" and Steven Spielberg's "W Side Story" are separated by only a scattering of points.

Making 2022 the fourth twelvemonth in a row in which a non-English language-language film is nominated for best motion-picture show is "Bulldoze My Car," winner of a host of critics' prizes, including the LAFCA awards for all-time motion-picture show and screenplay, and runner-upwards for director. The Haruki Murakami adaptation received Oscar noms in all three of those categories, plus 1 for international feature, giving it a "Parasite"-like sheen — though non likely shiny plenty a coat to overcome the power of the "Dog."

The academy declined to include any of 2021'due south Top ten grossers (domestic or worldwide) in the best-film field, leaving "Dune" the alone blockbuster-ish nominee — unless one counts "Don't Wait Up." Netflix's unverified accounting claims that moving picture has logged close to 400 million streaming hours, whatever that means, relative to box office equivalence or even full viewers. Who knows?

"Don't Expect Up" may accept dissever the critics (just to a higher place 50% on Rotten Tomatoes), but it'south "Nightmare Alley" distantly bringing upwardly the rear in Round 3. Martin Scorsese may enthusiastically endorse Guillermo del Toro's dark carnival (and too may exist clicking his heels over Marvel not landing a best-film nomination for "Spider-Man: No Way Home"), but panelist Tim Cogshell scoffs: "That the academy is numb to how much people dislike 'Nightmare Alley' is surprising."

Prominent absences include "The Lost Daughter," "Spencer," "Tick, Tick ... Smash!," "Business firm of Gucci" and "Existence the Ricardos."

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. "The Ability of the Dog"
2. "Belfast"
3. "West Side Story"
4. "Dune"
5. "King Richard"
6. "Don't Look Up"
7. "Licorice Pizza"
8. "Bulldoze My Car"
ix. "CODA"
10. "Nightmare Alley"

"'Drive My Machine' is a best film nominee. For the next vii weeks, at least, all is right with the world."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC's FilmWeek

one. "The Ability of the Dog"
two. "King Richard"
3. "Drive My Car"
iv. "CODA"
5. "Belfast"
6. "Westward Side Story"
seven. "Dune"
viii. "Licorice Pizza"
nine. "Nightmare Aisle"
10. "Don't Look Upward"

"My hope for 'Summer of Soul' (a documentary) in this category not being realized is no surprise; neither are the nominations for 'King Richard' and 'Licorice Pizza.' The nomination for 'Drive My Car,' a first for a Japanese-language film in the category, isn't surprising either. That the academy is numb to how much people dislike 'Nightmare Alley' is surprising. 'The Power of the Canis familiaris,' Jane Campion's fifth-best film ('The Piano,' 'Angel at My Table,' 'Sweetie' and 'Bright Star' being iv of her better films), volition likely win."

Dave Karger
TCM

1. "The Power of the Domestic dog"
two. "Belfast"
3. "Due west Side Story"
four. "Licorice Pizza"
5. "King Richard"
6. "Drive My Car"
seven. "Dune"
viii. "Don't Look Upwardly"
nine. "CODA"
10. "Nightmare Alley"

" 'The Ability of the Dog's' stiff showing makes information technology the flick to vanquish. I'd say 'Belfast' is the merely one with a shot to upset."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. "The Ability of the Dog"
two. "Belfast"
3. "West Side Story"
4. "Licorice Pizza"
5. "CODA"
6. "Dune"
vii. "King Richard"
viii. "Drive My Car"
9. "Nightmare Alley"
ten. "Don't Look Upwards"

"I think 'Power of the Dog' will nigh probable win for best picture; definitely the best director Oscar will go to Jane Campion."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. "The Power of the Canis familiaris"
2. "Dune"
3. "King Richard"
4. "Belfast"
v. "West Side Story"
6. "Drive My Car"
7. "Don't Look Upwardly"
8. "CODA"
9. "Licorice Pizza"
10. "Nightmare Alley"

"With 12 nominations, 'The Power of the Dog' should win, even if it's a nighttime noir western."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

ane. "The Power of the Dog"
2. "Belfast"
3. "Male monarch Richard"
4. "West Side Story"
5. "Drive My Car"
6. "Dune"
7. "Licorice Pizza"
viii. "Don't Expect Upward"
9. "CODA"
x. "Nightmare Alley"

" 'The Power of the Dog' led the field with 12 nominations. Let's not get too cute hither. Unless the bias confronting streamers runs really deep, Jane Campion's western will win."

Oscar nominee (and previous winner) Olivia Colman of "The Lost Daughter."

ane. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter")
2. Nicole Kidman ("Beingness the Ricardos")
3. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
four. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
5. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

In the closest of all the races the BuzzMeter tracks, Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter"), Kristen Stewart ("Spencer") and Nicole Kidman ("Being the Ricardos") are merely a few points apart in Round 3.

Despite some question over whether Stewart would make the concluding v, following her omissions from prominent lists including SAG and BAFTA, the BuzzMeter never doubted her. Or doubted her less, at whatsoever rate. The console correctly predicted all five nominees, including Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers" — some other surprising SAG snub) and Jessica Chastain of "The Eyes of Tammy Faye."

How close is the race? Many betting concerns take no clear favorite (no one in "minus coin"), with the pinnacle two (for instance, Kidman at +120 and Stewart at +175) hardly separated at all.

Panelist Justin Chang sums up the contest's "clarity" thus: "A race of utterly devilish complexity, made even more then by Lady Gaga'south startling omission. Trust no 1 who says they know what'll happen. That said … Olivia Colman. No, Nicole Kidman. No, Kidman Stewart. Yes, Stewart. Stewart, for sure. I remember. I promise."

Lady Gaga's all-out assail on the "House of Gucci," Emilia Jones ("CODA"), Alana Haim ("Licorice Pizza"), "West Side Story's" Rachel Zegler and Jennifer Hudson ("Respect") are among the prominent contenders not to receive nominations despite widely heralded work.

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter")
two. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
three. Nicole Kidman ("Being the Ricardos")
4. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
five. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

"A race of utterly devilish complexity, made even more so by Lady Gaga'southward startling omission. Trust no one who says they know what'll happen. That said … Olivia Colman. No, Nicole Kidman. No, Kidman Stewart. Yes, Stewart. Stewart, for sure. I retrieve. I promise."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC'due south FilmWeek

i. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Girl")
2. Nicole Kidman ("Being the Ricardos")
3. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
4. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
5. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

"My smart pick was Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin in 'Respect.' She was non nominated. My splendid choice, Colman, and my dark horses, Cruz and Stewart, are nominated. So is Chastain, for a bad performance in an fifty-fifty worse picture. So Jennifer was also snubbed."

Dave Karger
TCM

1. Nicole Kidman ("Existence the Ricardos")
2. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Girl")
iii. Jessica Chastain ("The Optics of Tammy Faye")
4. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
5. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")

"This race strikes me as a competition between past winners Kidman and Colman. I give Kidman the border for proving all the doubters wrong."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Girl")
two. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
iii. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
iv. Nicole Kidman ("Being the Ricardos")
5. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

"Lead actress is more of a competitive race [than for pb actor], though I retrieve Olivia Colman will slightly edge out the competition, for her complicated plough in 'The Lost Daughter.' Though I'd like to meet it become to Penélope Cruz."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

ane. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Daughter")
2. Nicole Kidman ("Existence the Ricardos")
iii. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
four. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")
5. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")

"Olivia Colman could play catch-up with Frances McDormand by winning her second Oscar for 'The Lost Daughter.'"

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Olivia Colman ("The Lost Girl")
ii. Kristen Stewart ("Spencer")
3. Penélope Cruz ("Parallel Mothers")
4. Nicole Kidman ("Existence the Ricardos")
v. Jessica Chastain ("The Eyes of Tammy Faye")

"Colman won just 4 years agone, only the industry loves her and voters won't be able to resist her cutting, empathetic turn as the mother in 'The Lost Daughter.'"

Will Smith, Demi Singleton and Saniyya Sidney as Richard, Serena and Venus Williams in "King Richard."

1. Will Smith ("King Richard")
ii. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Ability of the Dog")
3. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
iv. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick…Blast!")
5. Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos")

The console sees this race tightening considerably betwixt Will Smith ("King Richard") and Bridegroom Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog").

Smith holds serve for the atomic number 82, only Cumberbatch closes the gap, probable due to the non-inconsiderable goodwill the academy showed "Canis familiaris" (12 nominations).

Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos"), Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick…Smash!") and Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth) are also nominated.

Nicolas Cage ("Pig"), Clifton Collins Jr. ("Jockey"), Bradley Cooper ("Nightmare Aisle"), Hidetoshi Nishijima ("Drive My Motorcar"), Adam Driver ("Annette" and "House of Gucci") Mahershala Ali ("Swan Song") are not, with Peter Dinklage ("Cyrano") among the more surprising omissions.

Panelist Justin Chang says, " 'Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith volition dissever the majority vote, assuasive Andrew Garfield to sneak through' is the kind of ridiculous theory that never pans out. That said … I sort of promise it does?"

While panelist Tim Cogshell says, "To not be nominated about often ways one was only not nominated; it does not necessarily mean that 1 was snubbed. That said ... Peter Dinklage was not nominated for his phenomenal functioning in 'Cyrano' — he was snubbed!"

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Will Smith ("King Richard")
ii. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")
3. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick … Smash!")
4. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
5. Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos")

" 'Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith will separate the bulk vote, assuasive Andrew Garfield to sneak through' is the kind of ridiculous theory that never pans out. That said … I sort of promise it does?"

Tim Cogshell
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Peter Dinklage ("Cyrano")
2. Volition Smith ("King Richard")
3. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick…Nail!")
4. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
v. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Domestic dog")

"I don't treat the notion of snubs as practical to Academy Awards nominations. To not be nominated nearly often ways one was simply not nominated; it does not necessarily mean that 1 was snubbed. That said, Peter Dinklage was not nominated for his phenomenal functioning in 'Cyrano' — he was snubbed! Information technology volition be Cumberbatch or Will Smith."

Dave Karger
TCM

ane. Will Smith ("Male monarch Richard")
2. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")
3. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick … Smash!")
4. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
5. Javier Bardem ("Beingness the Ricardos")

"Twenty years afterward losing this category to Washington, Will Smith should finally score his starting time Oscar on his third career nomination."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Will Smith ("Rex Richard")
2. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")
3. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
4. Javier Bardem ("Beingness the Ricardos")
five. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick … Nail!")

"Pb actor will get to Volition Smith, hands down, for 'Rex Richard.' He's been nominated twice earlier, simply never won an Oscar. It's his year."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

one. Will Smith ("Rex Richard")
2. Benedict Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Domestic dog")
three. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick … Boom!")
4. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
5. Javier Bardem ("Beingness the Ricardos")

"It'south a duel of career-best performances from Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch for the win."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Will Smith ("King Richard")
2. Bridegroom Cumberbatch ("The Power of the Dog")
iii. Denzel Washington ("The Tragedy of Macbeth")
iv. Andrew Garfield ("Tick, Tick … Boom!")
5. Javier Bardem ("Being the Ricardos")

"It's close between Smith and Cumberbatch, but Smith'south charismatic, complex work in 'Rex Richard' seems like the perfect chance to give him his first Oscar."

The Boss — Ariana DeBose (center) brings the heat as Anita in Steven Spielberg's "West Side Story" remake.

1. Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
2. Kirsten Dunst ("The Ability of the Dog")
iii. Aunjanue Ellis ("Rex Richard")
iv. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
5. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

Ariana DeBose remains a potent favorite for her renewal of Rita Moreno's previously Oscar-winning role in "Due west Side Story," with Kirsten Dunst also receiving a lot of dear from the console for her work in "The Power of the Canis familiaris."

DeBose, who has been sweeping critics' groups, stands to join some awfully exclusive clubs (along with Moreno), should she win.

Panelist Claudia Puig confidently picks DeBose for her "brilliant performance," saying, "It's certainly time for another Latina to win an interim Oscar, though it would be dainty if information technology wasn't always for the same function."

Meanwhile, panelist Tim Cogshell says while he was "smitten" with DeBose's work, "Kirsten Dunst is still very much in the mix."

Aunjanue Ellis ('King Richard') makes the cut, as expected, along with ii who weren't in the upper echelon of the BuzzMeter'southward Round ii listing: Judi Dench ("Belfast") and Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Girl").

Among those omitted, including favorite Caitríona Balfe ("Belfast"), Riley Keough ("Zola"), Saniyya Sidney ("King Richard"), Olga Merediz ("In the Heights"), one favorite solicited a specially pained annotate: "Ruth Negga, like 'Passing,' is as well good for the Oscars," said panelist Justin Chang of the actress and moving-picture show the academy completely, um, passed over.

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Ariana DeBose ("W Side Story")
ii. Kirsten Dunst ("The Ability of the Dog")
3. Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")
4. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
5. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

"Ruth Negga, like 'Passing,' is too good for the Oscars."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC'south FilmWeek

1. Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog")
2. Ariana DeBose ("W Side Story")
3. Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")
4. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
5. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

"In my previous prognostication for this category, I wrote, "Aunjanue Ellis and Volition Smith winning Oscars for "King Richard" would mark something notable for the Academy.' That is still true and, with each of them nominated, possible. I was smitten by the explosive performance of Ariana DeBose, and Kirsten Dunst is nevertheless very much in the mix."

Dave Karger
TCM

one. Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
2. Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")
3. Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog")
4. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
5. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

"In that location'southward simply something about Anita. Lx years subsequently Rita Moreno'due south Oscar-winning performance as the iconic grapheme, DeBose seems fix to have the aforementioned category for her star-making turn."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
2. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
three. Aunjanue Ellis ("Male monarch Richard")
iv. Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog")
v. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

"Supporting actress will surely go to Ariana DeBose for her vivid performance as Anita in 'Westward Side Story.' And there'due south history at that place, since Rita Moreno won for the same part 61 years ago. Somehow that seems auspicious. Information technology's certainly time for some other Latina to win an acting Oscar, though information technology would exist prissy if it wasn't always for the aforementioned role."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

ane. Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
2. Kirsten Dunst ("The Power of the Dog")
iii. Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")
iv. Judi Dench ("Belfast")
v. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")

"Broadway star Ariana DeBose hits Anita out of the park in 'W Side Story,' as Rita Moreno did before her."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

ane. Ariana DeBose ("West Side Story")
2. Kirsten Dunst ("The Ability of the Dog")
3. Aunjanue Ellis ("King Richard")
4. Jessie Buckley ("The Lost Daughter")
5. Judi Dench ("Belfast")

" 'West Side Story' has e'er belonged to the actress playing Anita. Rita Moreno won an Oscar for the role 6 decades ago; at present it's DeBose's plow."

Kodi Smit-McPhee as Peter in "The Power of the Dog."

i. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Canis familiaris")
two. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
3. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
4. J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")
5. Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")

Kodi Smit-McPhee has been the favorite since Round 1 for his work in "The Power of the Dog," but Troy Kotsur every bit the freewheeling dad in "CODA" is now a strong second.

Panelist Dave Karger points to the momentum of the "Dog": "Kotsur is a strong contender for his equally bawdy and tender operation, but overall love for 'The Power of the Domestic dog' is likely to push button Smit-McPhee over the height. What other grapheme has had people talking to such an extent this season?"

Claudia Puig calls Smit-McPhee'due south portrayal "haunting"; Anne Thompson calls it "riveting"; Glenn Whipp says the movie "belongs to Smit-McPhee. He's the reason you probably watched information technology more than than once."

Bear witness of "Dog'southward" momentum may exist in the surprise nomination of Jesse Plemons (for, it should be said, a very well-received performance in the film). Equally expected, Ciarán Hinds is in for "Belfast" and previous winner J.K. Simmons is a nominee again for his irascible plough in "Being the Ricardos."

Among the prominent non-nominees: Jamie Dornan for "Belfast" (or "Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar"), Ben Affleck ("The Tender Bar"), Mike Faist ("Westward Side Story"), Tony Leung Chiu-Wai ("Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings"), Bradley Cooper ("Licorice Pizza") and Jared Leto for his go-for-it operation in "House of Gucci" (as Karger previously said: "If I had a ballot, Jared Leto would certainly be on it, simply his showy turn may prove too polarizing.").

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")
ii. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
3. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
4. Jesse Plemons ("The Ability of the Dog")
5. J.K. Simmons ("Existence the Ricardos")

"Jesse Plemons is to Kodi Smit-McPhee what Lakeith Stanfield was to Daniel Kaluuya last year: the surprisingly (merely deservedly) nominated co-star who reveals the strength of the movie's support."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC'south FilmWeek

1. J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")
ii. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
iii. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
4. Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")
five. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Ability of the Dog")

"Hinds and Kotsur are delightful in their performances equally quirky, bedraggled older men who exist in the real world with lives nigh people understand. Plemons, Simmons, and Smit-McPhee are skillful in their proscribed roles every bit characters in more than rarefied stories. In the instance of Simmons, an actual character, Fred Mertz, and the actor who played him, William Frawley. Nicely done, sir. I like the old men playing former men."

Dave Karger
TCM

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")
2. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
3. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
iv. J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")
5. Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")

" Kotsur is a strong contender for his equally bawdy and tender operation, simply overall love for 'The Power of the Dog' is likely to push Smit-McPhee over the pinnacle. What other graphic symbol has had people talking to such an extent this season?"

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")
ii. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
three. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
4. J.M. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")
v. Jesse Plemons ("The Ability of the Dog")

"Supporting thespian will probably get to Kodi Smit-McPhee for his haunting portrayal in 'Power of the Dog.' "

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Canis familiaris")
ii. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
three. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
4. Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")
5. J.K. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")

"Kodi Smit-McPhee is favored to win for his riveting plow in the best picture frontrunner."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

one. Kodi Smit-McPhee ("The Power of the Dog")
2. Troy Kotsur ("CODA")
3. Ciarán Hinds ("Belfast")
4. Jesse Plemons ("The Power of the Dog")
5. J.G. Simmons ("Being the Ricardos")

"All 4 of the principal actors from 'The Power of the Dog' earned noms, but the moving picture belongs to Smit-McPhee. He'southward the reason y'all probably watched information technology more than once."

Cooper Hoffman and Alana Haim in "Licorice Pizza."

1. "Licorice Pizza"
ii. "Belfast"
3. "King Richard"
four. "The Worst Person in the World"
v. "Don't Look Up"

Two odes to auteurs' hometowns comfortably top the list: Paul Thomas Anderson's fantasia on the '70s Valley, "Licorice Pizza"; and Kenneth Branagh's addicted remembrance of the surround of his youth, "Belfast." They're close in the points totals, but the console gives the edge to "Licorice."

"Paul Thomas Anderson at present has 11 Oscar nominations. I'd say he'southward overdue for a trophy," says panelist Glenn Whipp, echoing the sentiment of several.

On the other hand, panelist Dave Karger says, "Paul Thomas Anderson could very well win for his love alphabetic character to L.A., but I'm thinking Kenneth Branagh will finally win an University Laurels afterward 8 nominations spanning an astonishing seven different categories."

"King Richard" lands a spot, and as those sneaky Fizz People suspected it might, Sweden'due south "The Worst Person in the Earth" gets one also. Perhaps to the chagrin of some, "Don't Look Up" grabs a nom, just it couldn't take been that big a surprise — it likewise earned a WGA nod.

Notably not on the listing: Wes Anderson'due south love letter to literary journalism, "The French Dispatch"; Mike Mills' "C'monday C'monday," Pedro Almodóvar's "Parallel Mothers" and the highly regarded "Luca" from Disney-Pixar.

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. "Licorice Pizza"
2. "Belfast"
iii. "The Worst Person in the World"
4. "King Richard"
5. "Don't Look Up"

"Later 11 nominations (three for directing, three for producing and 5 for screenwriting), Paul Thomas Anderson looks poised to finally — finally — win his kickoff Academy Award. Hope he gets an ovation. As well, hooray for Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt for 'The Worst Person in the World.'"

Tim Cogshell
KPCC's FilmWeek

one. "Licorice Pizza"
two. "Belfast"
3. "King Richard"
iv. "The Worst Person in the World"
v. "Don't Look Up"

" 'Belfast' and 'Licorice Pizza' are fine films, merely they're both just guys telling stories of their youth recalled through rose-colored glasses. Lovely, but that's all they are. No 'Cherry-red Rocket,' no 'Pig,' merely 'Don't Look Upwardly' is swell writing — this is ridiculous. 'The Worst Person in the World' is an excellent original screenplay, and I hope it wins."

Dave Karger
TCM

i. "Belfast"
2. "Licorice Pizza"
3. "Don't Wait Up"
4. "Male monarch Richard"
v. "The Worst Person in the World"

"Paul Thomas Anderson could very well win for his beloved letter of the alphabet to L.A., merely I'thou thinking Kenneth Branagh volition finally win an Academy Laurels after 8 nominations spanning an astonishing seven different categories."

Claudia Puig
KPCC'due south FilmWeek

one. "Licorice Pizza"
2. "Belfast"
iii. "Rex Richard"
4. "The Worst Person in the World"
5. "Don't Await Up"

"Original screenplay to Paul Thomas Anderson's 'Licorice Pizza.' "

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

1. "Licorice Pizza"
two. "Belfast"
iii. "Don't Look Upwardly"
4. "Rex Richard"
5. "The Worst Person in the World"

"Long overdue for a win, Paul Thomas Anderson's all-time shot is for writing popular best-picture entry 'Licorice Pizza.' "

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. "Licorice Pizza"
ii. "Belfast"
3. "The Worst Person in the World"
4. "King Richard"
5. "Don't Wait Upwards"

"Paul Thomas Anderson at present has 11 Oscar nominations. I'd say he'southward overdue for a trophy."

"The Power of the Dog" (starring Benedict Cumberbatch) is the BuzzMeter's favorite to win the adapted-screenplay Oscar.

one. "The Ability of the Domestic dog"
2. "Bulldoze My Car"
3. "The Lost Daughter"
4. "CODA"
5. "Dune"

Jane Campion'due south adaptation of Thomas Savage'due south novel, "The Power of the Dog" remains the favorite — she's a previous winner in the original screenplay category, for "The Piano" — only "Drive My Car," by director/co-writer Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and co-writer Takamasa Oe, and Maggie Gyllenhaal's adaptation of Elena Ferrante'due south novel, "The Lost Girl," are not far behind.

Panelist Dave Karger says, "March 27 stands to be an unforgettable dark for Jane Campion — this is ane of three Oscars I wait her to win that evening."

However, some of the panelists' most passionate support was for "Drive My Car," which non only expands a Haruki Murakami curt story into a multilayered, iii-hr characteristic, but mines two other Murakami stories and uses the unique device of a multilingual theatrical production of "Uncle Vanya" to plumb the depths of Chekhov'south text.

Whipp says, " 'Drive My Car' is the articulate standout, a screenplay that retains the intimacy of its source material while expanding it to a 1000, simmering story of love and regret."

While Chang says, "Here's hoping university voters (ahem) Chekhov 'Drive My Automobile' on their ballots."

"CODA" author-director Sian Heder populated her American version of the French film "La Famille Bélier" with memorable characters and relationships. And for his tactile, atmospheric adaptation of Frank Herbert'southward classic science-fiction novel "Dune" (10 nominations), writer-director Denis Villeneuve embraced the book's sociopolitical themes and characters, and showed the wisdom to not endeavour to squeeze the whole thing into one film.

Maybe the most surprising omission: Tony, Pulitzer and Emmy winner Tony Kushner'southward "Westward Side Story" update, which greatly deepens the context of the story's environs and several characters' backstories, and which was surely a key component to the success of the best-moving picture nominee.

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

one. "Drive My Car"
2. "The Power of the Dog"
iii. "The Lost Daughter"
4. "Dune"
v. "CODA"

"Here's hoping university voters (ahem) Chekhov 'Drive My Car' on their ballots."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. "The Power of the Canis familiaris"
2. "CODA"
3. "The Lost Girl"
four. "Drive My Car"
5. "Dune"

" 'The Lost Girl' is still a skillful bet for this category. 'Bulldoze My Car' I expected; 'Dune' I did non. 'The Ability of the Dog' is the probable winner, though 'CODA,' which is a feel-good motion-picture show, may surprise everyone - because information technology feels good."

Dave Karger
IMDb and TCM

1. "The Power of the Dog"
2. "The Lost Girl"
3. "Drive My Auto"
4. "CODA"
v. "Dune"

"March 27 stands to be an unforgettable nighttime for Jane Campion — this is one of three Oscars I expect her to win that evening."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. "The Power of the Dog"
two. "The Lost Daughter"
3. "Drive My Automobile"
four. "CODA"
5. "Dune"

In addition to best picture, best manager and supporting actor: "Adapted screenplay volition likely become to 'Power of the Canis familiaris' as well."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

ane. "Drive My Car"
2. "The Ability of the Dog"
3. "The Lost Daughter"
4. "CODA"
5. "Dune"

"The voters maybe tempted to requite Maggie Gyllenhaal's adaptation of Elena Ferrante'south 'The Lost Daughter' a win, bold all-time-motion-picture show nominee 'Bulldoze My Car' takes international."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

i. "Bulldoze My Car"
two. "The Power of the Dog"
three. "The Lost Daughter"
four. "CODA"
v. "Dune"

" 'Drive My Automobile' is the clear standout, a screenplay that retains the intimacy of its source cloth while expanding it to a grand, simmering story of honey and regret."

Hidetoshi Nishijima (left) and Tōko Miura (right) in "Drive My Car," a contender in several Oscar categories.

1. "Drive My Motorcar" (Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Japan)
2. "The Worst Person in the World" (Joachim Trier, Norway)
iii. "Flee" (Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Denmark)
4. "The Hand of God" (Paolo Sorrentino, Italia)
5. "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom" (Pawo Choyning Dorji, Bhutan)

"Drive My Motorcar" is, of grade, the strong frontrunner here, considering its support from the panel in so many other categories — not to mention its nominations in 3 other major Oscar categories (adapted screenplay, manager and moving-picture show). It has been a behemoth all awards flavor long and the final consensus pick in Circular 3 of the BuzzMeter.

While the panelists admit the film'due south juggernaut status (Justin Chang writes, "At that place'south no suspense over whether 'Drive My Car' will win hither. The question is whether that's all it will win."), both Tim Cogshell and Anne Thompson see "Worst Person in the World" as feasible competition. Thompson says, "'Drive My Motorcar,' with manager, screenplay, and best picture nominations, should handily have this, just the more accessible 'The Worst Person in the Globe' also landed a screenplay nod."

"Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom" may have the all-time championship amid the nominees, but the panel does not expect information technology to put a Bhutan its competition'south backside: It ranks final in Round 3. Meanwhile, "Flee" makes Oscar history by being nominated in three characteristic categories: International, Animated and Documentary.

Panelist Dave Karger says, "This is an piece of cake win for the dearest 'Bulldoze My Motorcar.' 'Flee,' meanwhile, volition have the distinction of losing in three dissimilar best characteristic categories."

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

ane. Japan, "Bulldoze My Automobile"
2. Norway, "The Worst Person in the World"
3. Denmark, "Flee"
iv. Italy, "The Hand of God"
5. Bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"

"In keeping with past international juggernauts similar 'Parasite,' 'Roma,' 'Amour' and 'Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,' in that location's no suspense over whether 'Bulldoze My Car' will win here. The question is whether that'south all information technology volition win."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. Nippon, "Bulldoze My Motorcar"
2. Kingdom of norway, "The Worst Person in the World"
3. Italia, "The Manus of God"
iv. Kingdom of denmark, "Abscond"
5. Bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"

" 'Flee' is nominated in this category and for blithe feature [likewise as documentary feature], while 'Bulldoze My Machine' is nominated both hither and for best motion-picture show. Fantabulous. Asghar Farhadi's 'A Hero' is not nominated (though non snubbed), which is surprising. My pick is still 'The Worst Person in the Globe,' from my favorite Norwegian director, Joachim Trier."

Dave Karger
IMDb and TCM

1. Japan, "Drive My Car"
2. Denmark, "Flee"
iii. Italy, "The Mitt of God"
4. Norway, "The Worst Person in the Globe"
5. Kingdom of bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"

"This is an easy win for the beloved 'Drive My Car.' 'Flee,' meanwhile, will have the distinction of losing in 3 unlike Best Feature categories."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

ane. Japan, "Drive My Car"
2. Norway, "The Worst Person in the Globe"
3. Kingdom of denmark, "Abscond"
4. Bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"
5. Italy, "The Hand of God"

"International feature film volition have to get to 'Bulldoze My Car,' given its nomination for best picture show also.

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

one. Japan, "Drive My Car"
2. Norway, "The Worst Person in the World"
3. Denmark, "Flee"
4. Italia, "The Manus of God"
5. Bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"

" 'Drive My Car,' with director, screenplay, and all-time picture nominations, should handily take this, but the more accessible 'The Worst Person in the Globe' too landed a screenplay nod."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. Japan, "Drive My Car"
ii. Kingdom of norway, "The Worst Person in the Earth"
3. Denmark, "Abscond"
4. Italy, "The Hand of God"
v. Bhutan, "Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom"

"But ane of the films is also nominated for best picture. Only one of the films is actually the year's all-time picture."

i. "Encanto"
2. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
iii. "Luca"
iv. "Raya and the Last Dragon"
5. "Flee"

The Lin-Manuel Miranda/magical realism-powered "Encanto" holds onto the elevation spot ("I retrieve 'Encanto' is going to charm the Academy equally much as it delighted me," says panelist Claudia Puig), merely "The Mitchells vs. the Machines," the off-kilter, freewheeling saga of an imperfect family unit battling perfect robots, slashes the distance between the two (panelist Anne Thompson considers information technology the favorite).

Panelist Glenn Whipp thinks the Disney motion picture'due south other Oscar nods are indicative of the academy's mood: " 'Encanto' picked upwards nominations for score and song every bit well, a sign of its popularity. It's a sure affair."

And that's not to mention its massive success on the music charts — all eight of Miranda'southward songs charted at the same time. That popular groundswell can't hurt its Oscar chances.

Rounding out the Superlative v: international feature contender "Flee," Pixar'southward "summertime reverie," as panelist Anne Thompson describes "Luca" and Disney's "Raya and the Terminal Dragon."

Among the major titles left off the final list: Anime principal Mamoru Hosoda's wild reimagining of "Beauty and the Brute" in the cyber age, "Belle," and the French mountain-climbing drama, "The Summit of the Gods." Tim Cogshell says, "'The Summit of the Gods' was the most thrilling and engaging blithe film this twelvemonth, simply 'Belle' is the nigh delightful and my favorite."

Justin Chang
Los Angeles Times

1. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
2. "Encanto"
3. "Raya and the Last Dragon"
iv. "Flee"
5. "Luca"

"'Flee' has the unprecedented honor of being nominated for animated, international and documentary feature. I hope information technology wins at least i of them, though sometimes multiple nominations can exist a curse in disguise."

Tim Cogshell
KPCC'due south FilmWeek

1. "Encanto"
2. "Raya and the Last Dragon"
iii. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
4. "Luca"
5. "Flee"

" I am a petty surprised that 'Sing 2' did not make the university cut, simply not surprised that 'Raya' and 'Encanto' did. Ane of those two will win. 'Flee' and 'Luca' are both films you should see; they are splendid and compelling."

Dave Karger
TCM

1. "Encanto"
2. "Luca"
three. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
4. "Flee"
5. "Raya and the Concluding Dragon"

"Pixar runs the risk of splitting the vote between 'Encanto' and 'Luca,' just 'Encanto'due south' infectious soundtrack and adorable atomic number 82 character should pb to a victory."

Claudia Puig
KPCC's FilmWeek

1. "Encanto"
two. "Luca"
3. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
4. "Flee"
5. "Raya and the Last Dragon"

"I recollect 'Encanto' is going to amuse the University as much as it delighted me. The wonderful songs by Lin Manuel Miranda, the sweetly engaging story with its artful blend of humor and drama and the beautiful look of it should push button it to the top."

Anne Thompson
IndieWire

one. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
2. "Encanto"
iii. "Raya and the Last Dragon"
4. "Flee"
5. "Luca"

"While Kingdom of denmark's 'Flee' is the starting time film to land in the 3 categories animated, international and documentary feature, that does not mean it will win them all. Producers Phil Lord & Chris Miller'due south 'The Mitchells vs. the Machines' is the favorite."

Glenn Whipp
Los Angeles Times

1. "Encanto"
2. "Luca"
3. "The Mitchells vs. the Machines"
4. "Abscond"
5. "Raya and the Last Dragon"

" 'Encanto' picked up nominations for score and song as well, a sign of its popularity. It's a sure thing."